China's economy grew 4.5% from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2026, official figures released in Beijing on October 19 showed. Growth rose from 4.3% in the second quarter and exceeded the 4.4% forecast in a Reuters poll, as strong exports helped offset weak demand at home.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported growth of 4.6% for the first nine months. Third-quarter output increased 1.2% from the previous quarter, compared with 0.9% in the second quarter. Beijing's full-year target is 4.5% to 5%, according to Reuters, leaving the latest annual growth rate at the bottom of that range.
The official release showed goods exports, measured in yuan, rising 16.4% in the first nine months. September industrial output at larger enterprises increased 5.5% from a year earlier. These figures contrast with retail sales of consumer goods, which rose only 1.1% in September, highlighting the gap between production and household spending.
Investment remained another weak point. The statistics bureau reported a 7.2% annual decline in fixed-asset investment, excluding rural households, over January-September. Property development investment fell 20.6%. The bureau acknowledged that insufficient domestic demand remained a prominent problem despite the improvement in headline growth.
Dave Chia, an economist at Moody's Analytics, told AP that domestic demand was weak while trade expanded strongly. He expected exports to remain robust but identified global trade barriers as a risk. His assessment points to uncertainty over how long overseas demand can support growth while domestic spending remains subdued.
Reuters reported that authorities had expanded support for homebuyers and introduced measures to channel cheaper credit into infrastructure and technology, while holding back from large-scale stimulus. The stronger GDP result eases pressure for a more aggressive response, according to the agency. The statistics bureau called for further efforts to strengthen domestic demand.
Comments