Fully applying World Health Organization tobacco-control measures could prevent about 3.5 million cancer cases in East and South-East Asia between 2025 and 2050, according to a modelling study highlighted by the International Agency for Research on Cancer on Monday. The analysis covered 15 countries and assessed how stronger policy implementation could change smoking prevalence and the future cancer burden.
Researchers estimated that roughly 159 million cases of cancers linked to tobacco could occur across the region during the 25-year period. If smoking patterns and existing controls remain at current levels, about 44.2 million of those cases would be attributable specifically to tobacco smoking. The authors modelled the effect of maximizing measures contained in the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.
The projected benefit fell from 3.5 million prevented cases to 2.2 million after the researchers adjusted their model for changes associated with countries' Human Development Index. IARC said socioeconomic development can independently influence smoking behaviour and cancer rates, making that adjusted estimate a more conservative view of the policies' effect rather than a count of observed outcomes.
The study found large differences by country and cancer site. China accounted for the greatest absolute number of potentially preventable cancers, followed by Japan and Indonesia. Lung cancer delivered the largest projected gain: more than 1.1 million of the 2.2 million cases avoided in the HDI-adjusted scenario were lung cancers.
The research is the first analysis to estimate across these 15 countries how maximum implementation of the WHO treaty's policy package could affect both smoking prevalence and cancer incidence. The package includes measures such as higher tobacco taxes, smoke-free environments, health warnings, advertising restrictions and help for people who want to stop smoking. The results are projections, not evidence that 3.5 million cases have already been prevented.
The peer-reviewed study appeared online in The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific on August 20, and IARC publicized its findings on September 7. The agency said East and South-East Asia carry a substantial share of the world's tobacco-related cancer burden and concluded that stronger enforcement of established controls could make an important contribution to global cancer prevention over the next quarter-century.
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