Geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the most pressing threat to global stability in 2026, according to the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report released ahead of the annual Davos summit. The report found that 18 percent of surveyed business executives and decision-makers identified the weaponization of economic tools such as tariffs, sanctions, and investment restrictions as the most likely trigger of a material global crisis within the next two years, surpassing concerns over misinformation, societal polarization, and armed conflict.
The findings mark a significant shift in risk perception, with geoeconomic confrontation climbing two positions from last year to claim the top spot. WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi explained that the term refers to situations where economic policy tools become weaponry rather than a basis for cooperation, citing rising tariffs, checks on foreign investment, and tighter supply controls on critical minerals as prime examples of this troubling trend.
The report paints a turbulent picture of the near-term global outlook, with half of the surveyed leaders expecting stormy conditions over the next two years and only one percent anticipating calm. When examining the geopolitical landscape over the next decade, 68 percent of respondents predicted a multipolar or fragmented world order, up four percentage points from the previous year's survey, suggesting a continued erosion of international cooperation frameworks.
Artificial intelligence emerged as the fastest-rising concern in this year's assessment, with the potential for adverse AI outcomes jumping from 30th place among short-term risks last year to fifth place among long-term risks in the current rankings. This dramatic surge reflects growing anxiety about the transformative technology's potential to disrupt labor markets, spread misinformation, and create new security vulnerabilities.
Environmental risks continue to dominate the long-term outlook, with extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem collapse ranking among the top concerns for the coming decade. However, the immediate focus on economic tensions reflects the current geopolitical climate, where trade wars and strategic competition between major powers have intensified significantly.
The report sets the agenda for discussions at the Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, scheduled for January 19-23, 2026. This year's gathering will focus on reestablishing what organizers call a spirit of dialogue, bringing together world leaders, business executives, and civil society representatives to address the interconnected challenges facing the global community.
As nations increasingly deploy economic measures as strategic weapons, the WEF warns that the resulting fragmentation poses risks not only to global trade and investment flows but also to the international cooperation needed to address shared challenges like climate change and pandemic preparedness. The report urges leaders to find pathways back to constructive engagement before economic confrontation spirals into broader conflict.
