Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Geneva on Sunday for a second round of nuclear negotiations with the United States, meeting with International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi ahead of formal talks scheduled for Tuesday. The diplomatic push comes against a backdrop of escalating military posturing, with Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps launching major naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz and the Pentagon deploying a second aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. Araghchi wrote on social media that he carried real ideas to achieve a fair and equitable deal, adding pointedly that submission before threats was not on the table.
The Geneva talks follow an initial round of indirect negotiations held in Muscat, Oman on February 6, where US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner communicated with the Iranian delegation through Omani mediators rather than face-to-face. US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper attended that session in full dress uniform, a move widely interpreted as a deliberate show of military resolve. Both sides described the Muscat meeting as a positive start, but fundamental disagreements remain entrenched. Washington demands that Iran accept zero uranium enrichment on its soil, while Tehran insists on retaining domestic enrichment capability as a sovereign right and has offered instead to dilute its stockpile of 60-percent-enriched uranium in exchange for the lifting of all financial sanctions.
The military dimension of the crisis has intensified significantly in recent weeks. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has been operating in the Arabian Sea since January, and the Pentagon ordered the USS Gerald R. Ford redeployed from the Caribbean to the Persian Gulf on February 13, bringing the total to two carrier strike groups in the region. More than 30,000 US service members are now stationed across nine Middle Eastern countries, with F-15E fighter jets relocated to Jordan and B-2 stealth bombers maintained at heightened alert status. Iran responded on Sunday by launching an exercise named Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz, a live-fire naval drill designed to demonstrate its ability to dominate the waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passes daily.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu added pressure from the sidelines, telling the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations that any deal must require all enriched material to leave Iran and the complete dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, not merely a pause in operations. Netanyahu also demanded effective inspections with no advance warning and resolution of Iran's ballistic missile programme. His maximalist stance contrasts with President Trump's stated preference for a negotiated outcome, with Trump reportedly telling Netanyahu during their February 12 meeting at the White House to give diplomacy a chance. At least nine regional countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have passed messages to Washington urging the continuation of talks, while Gulf states have offered assurances that their territories will not be used for military strikes against Iran.
The stakes of the Geneva round extend well beyond the negotiating table. The IAEA has been unable to verify the status of Iran's near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile since the June 2025 war, during which Israeli and American strikes damaged seven Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran possesses an estimated 440 kilograms of 60-percent-enriched uranium, enough material for approximately seven nuclear weapons if further enriched, though US intelligence assesses that Tehran is not currently building a bomb. Oil markets have remained volatile amid the uncertainty, with Brent crude trading near 68 dollars per barrel and analysts warning that a collapse in talks could push prices toward 80 dollars while a breakthrough could send them below 60. With Araghchi dismissing the European powers as paralysed and irrelevant, and regional mediators led by Oman now driving the diplomatic process, the Geneva talks represent perhaps the most consequential nuclear negotiation since the original 2015 deal that the Trump administration abandoned during its first term.
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