Iraq's parliament missed its constitutional deadline on Tuesday January 28 to elect a new president after a session convened a day earlier drew only 85 of the 222 lawmakers needed for a quorum, plunging the country into a constitutional crisis compounded by a bitter dispute between its two main Kurdish parties. Speaker Haibat al-Halbousi postponed the vote after the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan formally requested more time to negotiate over which faction would nominate the presidential candidate. The delay comes amid escalating international pressure over the expected return of former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki to power, with the United States issuing increasingly blunt warnings against his appointment.
The constitutional impasse stems from a rupture of the decades-old power-sharing arrangement that has governed Iraqi politics since 2003. Under the ethno-sectarian quota system known as the muhasasa, the presidency is reserved for a Kurd, the speaker of parliament for a Sunni Arab, and the prime minister for a Shia Arab. The PUK has held the federal presidency since 2005 and nominated senior party figure Nizar Amedi as its candidate, while the KDP broke with tradition by putting forward Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, arguing that as the larger Kurdish bloc with 26 parliamentary seats to the PUK's 15, it deserved the nomination. The standoff has paralyzed a process that was already running behind schedule, with the new parliament having held its first session on December 29 following elections in November 2025 that saw 56 percent voter turnout.
The crisis over the presidency has been overshadowed by the far more consequential battle over the prime ministership. On January 24 the Shia Coordination Framework, the dominant parliamentary alliance with an estimated 116 to 119 seats, nominated Maliki as its candidate for premier after outgoing prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani withdrew his bid for a second term. Maliki, 75, previously served as Iraq's only two-term prime minister from 2006 to 2014, a tenure that ended under combined pressure from Washington, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, and Tehran after the Islamic State captured Mosul and vast swaths of Iraqi territory. His State of Law Coalition won 29 seats in the November elections, and he secured the nomination with the backing of Iran-aligned parties including Asaib Ahl al-Haq and the Badr Organization.
President Donald Trump escalated the confrontation dramatically on January 27 by posting on Truth Social that the United States would no longer help Iraq if Maliki were reinstated. Trump wrote that the last time Maliki held power the country descended into poverty and total chaos, and warned that without American support Iraq had no chance of success, prosperity, or freedom. A day earlier Secretary of State Marco Rubio had called outgoing prime minister al-Sudani to warn that a government controlled by Iran could not put Iraq's own interests first, keep the country out of regional conflicts, or advance the bilateral partnership between Washington and Baghdad. The State Department also sent a letter to Iraqi politicians stating that while the selection of a premier remained an Iraqi decision, the United States would make its own sovereign decisions regarding the next government in line with American interests.
Washington's warnings carry significant financial leverage. Iraq holds the bulk of its oil export revenue, which accounts for approximately 90 percent of government income, in a Central Bank account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. American officials have repeatedly warned Iraqi leaders in recent weeks that the United States could suspend dollar transfers to Iraq's Central Bank if pro-Iranian parties join the government. The threat was reportedly delivered by Charge d'Affaires Joshua Harris to senior Iraqi figures including al-Sudani, Ammar al-Hakim, Hadi al-Ameri, and Kurdish leader Masrour Barzani. Washington also warned it would suspend engagement with any new government that included any of 58 members of parliament it views as linked to Iran.
Regional analysts note that the stakes extend far beyond Iraq's borders. With Iran weakened by the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and the degradation of Hezbollah, Iraq has become Tehran's most critical remaining strategic foothold in the region. Maliki is widely described as the godfather of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, the Iran-aligned parallel military structures, and his return to power would likely entrench militia influence over governance and obstruct regional normalization efforts. Ammar al-Hakim, leader of the National State Forces Alliance with 18 parliamentary seats, has proposed referring the prime ministerial question to Grand Ayatollah Sistani in Najaf, echoing the cleric's decisive intervention in 2014 that effectively blocked Maliki's third term, though the 94-year-old cleric's current political engagement remains uncertain.
A new parliamentary session to elect the president is expected around February 1, though no official date has been confirmed. Once a president is elected, Iraq's constitution grants 15 days for the appointment of a prime minister, setting the stage for what promises to be one of the most contentious government formations in the country's post-2003 history. The Coordination Framework has indicated it will proceed with Maliki's nomination regardless of American pressure, while the Kurdish and Sunni blocs that together hold over 130 seats have yet to declare whether they will support or oppose the nomination, leaving the ultimate outcome in the balance.
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