The New START treaty officially expired at midnight on February 5, 2026, ending more than half a century of nuclear arms control agreements between Russia and the United States. For the first time since the early 1970s, there are now no legally binding limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals of the world's two largest nuclear powers, raising concerns about a potential new arms race.
The treaty, signed in Prague in 2010 by Presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama, had capped each nation at 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads, 800 deployed and non-deployed strategic launchers, and 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers. The agreement was extended for five years in 2021 but could not be prolonged beyond today's deadline under its original provisions.
Dmitry Medvedev, who now serves as deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, warned that the expiration marks a dangerous turning point in global security. He stated that without such agreements, Russia will promptly and firmly fend off any new threats to its security. However, he clarified that while the situation should alarm everyone, it does not immediately mean a nuclear catastrophe is imminent.
Russia had suspended its participation in New START in February 2023 but continued to observe the treaty's numerical limits. In September 2025, President Vladimir Putin offered to maintain these limits for an additional year if the United States made a reciprocal commitment. Washington did not issue a formal response, and while President Donald Trump spoke positively about nuclear restraint in late 2025, no concrete commitments were made.
The expiration leaves both nations without verification mechanisms to monitor each other's nuclear capabilities and intentions. Arms control experts have expressed deep concern about the uncertainty this creates. Without inspections and data exchanges mandated by New START, intelligence agencies on both sides will have to rely increasingly on satellite imagery and other methods that provide less comprehensive information about the other's nuclear posture.
The end of the treaty comes amid heightened global tensions and coincides with ongoing negotiations between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi. China, which has been rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, was never party to New START, adding another layer of complexity to future arms control efforts. Analysts warn that a three-way nuclear competition could emerge if diplomatic efforts fail to produce a new framework.
International observers and arms control advocates have called for urgent diplomatic engagement to establish new agreements. The United Nations has urged both powers to return to negotiations, emphasizing that nuclear arms control remains essential for global stability. However, with no talks currently scheduled and deep mistrust between Washington and Moscow, the path forward remains unclear. The world now enters an uncertain era where the nuclear arsenals of its two most heavily armed nations operate without any mutual constraints.
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