The NEW START treaty officially expired on February 5, 2026, marking the first time in more than half a century that no legally binding constraints exist on the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia. UN Secretary-General António Guterres characterized the moment as a grave development for international peace and security, warning that the world has entered uncharted and dangerous territory.
The treaty, signed in 2010 and entered into force in 2011, had capped each nation's deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 and limited delivery systems including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers to 700 deployed units. It also included crucial verification measures such as data exchanges, notifications, and on-site inspections that provided transparency between the two nuclear superpowers.
Russia suspended its participation in NEW START in February 2023 amid tensions over the war in Ukraine, though it continued to observe the treaty's numerical limits. Under the agreement's provisions, the treaty could not be extended beyond its February 2026 expiration date. President Vladimir Putin offered in September 2025 to continue observing the limits for up to one year if the United States made a reciprocal commitment, but Washington did not formally respond to the proposal.
President Donald Trump referred to the expired agreement as a badly negotiated deal in a statement on his Truth Social platform. He suggested that rather than extending the existing framework, nuclear experts should work on a new, improved, and modernized treaty. The administration has not indicated whether it will voluntarily continue adhering to the previous warhead limits.
The United States and Russia together possess nearly 90 percent of all nuclear weapons globally, with more than 10,500 warheads combined between them. China's nuclear arsenal currently stands at approximately 600 warheads and is growing faster than any other nation's stockpile, adding roughly 100 new warheads annually since 2023. Arms control experts warn that without binding limits, the risk of a renewed nuclear arms race has increased substantially, though financial constraints from the Ukraine war may limit Russia's immediate expansion capacity.
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