European security officials are sounding the alarm about an increasingly confrontational Russia, with Baltic states now preparing for the possibility of direct conflict within the next few years as Moscow continues its aggressive posture following the Ukraine war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in early December that while Russia is not planning to go to war with Europe, "if Europe suddenly wants to go to war with us and starts, we are ready right now." The stark warning has intensified concerns among NATO's eastern flank members.
The consensus among Baltic countries is that an attack against them could come as soon as three years from now. Researchers at Harvard University's Belfer Center found that the most frequently mentioned years for potential Russian aggression are 2027 and 2028, coinciding with expected completion of Russian military reconstitution efforts.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have accelerated defense spending and are actively fortifying their borders with Russia and Belarus. Military exercises have increased in frequency, and civil defense preparations are being expanded to include the general population.
The European Union has responded by approving a historic €90 billion loan to Ukraine, demonstrating continued commitment to supporting Kyiv's defense while simultaneously strengthening its own military capabilities. NATO has also increased its forward presence in the Baltic region.
Security analysts note that the shadow Russia casts over Europe has forced the continent to face an uncomfortable truth: the risk of major conflict on European soil is once again real, requiring a fundamental reassessment of defense strategies and resource allocation.
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