DC Studios' Supergirl is set to arrive in US theaters on June 26 across approximately 3,600 locations including IMAX screens, but the Milly Alcock-led superhero film faces a daunting challenge from Pixar's Toy Story 5, which continues to dominate the domestic box office. Industry tracking projects Supergirl will earn between $47 million and $50 million in its domestic opening weekend, a respectable debut but nowhere near enough to claim the top spot. Toy Story 5, which opened to a 2026-best $160 million last weekend, is projected to earn between $88 million and $96 million in its second frame, nearly doubling Supergirl's expected haul.
The film, directed by Craig Gillespie, has already premiered at high-profile events in London's Leicester Square and Brooklyn on June 22, generating mixed first reactions from critics and audiences. Milly Alcock stars as Kara Zor-El, the Kryptonian hero better known as Supergirl, and her performance has been widely praised as the film's biggest asset. Alcock, who gained international fame through her role in House of the Dragon, brings emotional depth and physicality to the role that has impressed even skeptical viewers.
Jason Momoa's portrayal of Lobo, the intergalactic bounty hunter, has emerged as one of the film's most talked-about elements. Critics have described his introduction as the most entertaining antihero debut in the new DC Universe, bringing chaotic energy and dark humor to every scene he inhabits. David Corenswet reprises his role as Superman alongside Rachel Brosnahan and Nicholas Hoult in supporting roles, anchoring the film firmly within James Gunn's interconnected DCU framework.
However, a recurring criticism centers on the film's villain, which multiple reviewers have characterized as bland and underdeveloped. This weakness in antagonist writing echoes a long-standing challenge for superhero films and could dampen word-of-mouth momentum in the crucial weeks following the opening weekend. The mixed early reception raises questions about whether the film can maintain strong legs at the box office beyond its initial debut.
Globally, Supergirl is projected to open between $80 million and $90 million, with overseas markets expected to contribute between $27 million and $39 million. Warner Bros. will need the film to reach approximately $350 million worldwide to consider it a financial success given its production and marketing budget. With Toy Story 5 commanding an estimated 40 to 45 percent drop in its second weekend — a strong hold by industry standards — the animated sequel is expected to surpass $300 million domestic within days.
The box office showdown highlights the increasingly competitive summer movie season, where even well-known intellectual properties must contend with entrenched blockbusters. Supergirl represents a critical test for Gunn's new DC Universe, which aims to rebuild audience trust after years of inconsistent storytelling under the previous regime. The film's ability to connect with general audiences beyond the comic book fanbase will likely determine whether it achieves long-term profitability.
Analysts note that a strong opening weekend alone will not guarantee success for Supergirl, as the film's theatrical run will depend heavily on audience reception and competition from upcoming summer releases. The coming weeks will reveal whether Alcock's star-making performance and the DCU brand can sustain interest, or whether the shadow of Toy Story 5 proves too large for even a Kryptonian to escape.
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