The world can no longer avoid significantly exceeding 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels, according to UNEP’s 2026 Emissions Gap Report, covered by AP and RTÉ on October 21. The UN agency says countries must now limit the scale and duration of that overshoot and work to bring temperatures back down by the century’s end.
UNEP’s key messages describe a lowest-possible overshoot pathway with peak warming of 1.7–1.8°C. Reaching it would require global greenhouse gas emissions to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all measured against 2025 levels. These are required reductions in a scenario, not forecasts of what governments will achieve.
Existing national commitments fall well short. RTÉ reports that implementing them fully would cut emissions by only 11–15% by 2035. That gap separates countries’ current promises from the much deeper reductions UNEP identifies as necessary to constrain the rise in global temperature.
AP reports that the warming outlook has deteriorated since last year. It attributes the report’s revision partly to the United States’ formal withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. UNEP says keeping warming below 1.5°C without more than a limited overshoot is no longer possible.
Returning to or below 1.5°C would also require large-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, UNEP says. Its assessment nevertheless identifies climate policies that have already reduced emissions and could be expanded globally. The agency presents these measures as ways to narrow the gap between commitments and the cuts required.
UNEP and ODI Global are scheduled to present the findings in London on October 21, from 10:00 to 11:30 British Summer Time, with an online broadcast. The programme includes UNEP chief Inger Andersen and lead author Anne Olhoff, followed by discussion of how to close the emissions gap. The event had not yet begun at the time of this report.
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