The World Meteorological Organization has forecast that strong El Nino conditions will develop rapidly between July and September, raising the likelihood of extreme weather across much of the planet, according to an update issued this week. The agency said it holds high confidence in the outlook and urged governments and vulnerable communities to prepare for a period of dangerous heat, drought and heavy rainfall.
El Nino is a natural climate pattern marked by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which shifts weather systems worldwide. The WMO said multi-model forecasts point to a consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures, with seasonal average sea-surface anomalies expected to exceed 2 degrees Celsius in key monitoring regions, a threshold associated with strong events.
Such episodes typically peak between November and February and can last nine to 12 months, meaning the effects of the developing event are likely to extend well into next year. The agency noted that the pattern is unfolding against a backdrop of human-driven climate change, and that global temperatures normally reach record levels during El Nino years, compounding the risks to people and ecosystems.
The forecast points to sharply different impacts across regions. Drier than average conditions are expected across Central America, the Caribbean and parts of North and South America, along with drier weather during the monsoon season in Indonesia and Southeast Asia. East Africa, by contrast, is forecast to see wetter than normal conditions from September to December, raising the risk of flooding, an outlook reinforced by interaction with the Indian Ocean Dipole.
The warning follows a summer already marked by extreme heat, including record-breaking European temperatures and a prolonged, dangerous heatwave across the central and eastern United States. WMO scientist Alvaro Silva said global temperatures normally reach record levels during El Nino years and cautioned that the window to act on preparedness and early action is narrowing in some regions.
The agency called for stronger early warning systems and coordinated action across United Nations bodies, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water and health. Officials stressed that advanced seasonal forecasts can help save lives and cushion economic damage, giving authorities several months to prepare for the disruptions that a strong El Nino is expected to bring.
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