The World Meteorological Organization said on October 8 that El Niño will intensify before a December peak, increasing heat, drought and flood risks worldwide. Its latest seasonal outlook puts the likelihood of the event lasting through February 2027 at nearly 100%, Reuters reported.
The UN agency forecasts central and eastern equatorial Pacific sea temperatures averaging about 3.7°C above normal in October–December. That would exceed the previous seasonal record of 2.6°C in November 2015–January 2016. These figures describe a regional ocean forecast, rather than an observed increase in global temperature.
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural Pacific climate cycle that changes weather around the world. Reuters explained that it typically occurs every two to seven years and can bring drought to some regions and heavy rain to others. The new bulletin anticipates above-average temperatures across much of the globe.
WMO chief Celeste Saulo said the event could rank among the strongest since at least 1950. She explained that El Niño releases heat already stored in the ocean, which now has more heat available. WMO said its persistence forecast draws on 13 prediction centres sharing buoy, satellite and weather-balloon observations.
Separately, the US Climate Prediction Center's October 8 assessment found strengthening El Niño conditions, with enhanced rainfall across the central and eastern Pacific and suppressed rainfall over Indonesia. It warned that a powerful event makes typical El Niño impacts more likely, but does not guarantee them in any particular region.
WMO also expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to peak in October before weakening, while equatorial Atlantic waters remain warmer than normal. Those additional ocean conditions form part of the seasonal outlook. The US centre will update its ENSO diagnostic discussion on November 12, providing another assessment of the event's evolution.
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