The Global Carbon Project forecast on Tuesday, November 10, that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement will fall by 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2 billion metric tons. The small projected decline comes as governments meet at the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Turkey, and does not establish that global emissions have reached a lasting peak.
The estimate is part of the project’s 21st annual Global Carbon Budget, prepared by an international research team of more than 140 scientists. It is a projection for the full year, using available energy data and estimates for the remaining months. The paper has been submitted for open peer review, according to the CICERO Center for International Climate Research.
The researchers estimate that emissions from oil will fall 1.9% and those from natural gas 0.3%, while coal emissions will rise 0.6%. They attribute much of the oil decline to the energy shock associated with the Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Expanding solar and wind power and the use of electric vehicles have also slowed emissions growth.
The forecast points to fossil emission declines of 0.9% in China, 1.3% in the United States and 1.5% in the European Union, but a 4.4% increase in India. The global 0.4% estimate carries an uncertainty range from a 1.5% fall to a 0.6% rise, so the researchers cannot rule out a small annual increase.
When emissions from land-use changes such as deforestation and peat fires are added, the project expects total global CO2 emissions to reach 43.3 billion metric tons in 2026, up from 42.8 billion in 2025. The distinction matters because a modest drop in fossil emissions would not mean less carbon dioxide is entering the atmosphere overall.
CICERO researcher Glen Peters said a one-year fall driven by a supply shock would not by itself show a structural turn. The team says faster deployment of clean power, batteries and electric vehicles is needed to secure a sustained decline. Its findings provide fresh evidence for negotiators at COP31, which runs through November 20.
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