Venezuela's economy faces severe disruption following Nicolas Maduro's capture by US forces, as the Trump administration announced it will control the country's oil sales "indefinitely," fundamentally altering revenue flows to Caracas.
US Control of Oil Revenue
The United States has begun marketing sanctioned Venezuelan oil held in storage. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that proceeds will be held in US Treasury accounts, with funds to be "shared between the US and Venezuela," though specific proportions remain unspecified.
A deal reportedly involves exporting $2 billion worth of crude, with Venezuela "turning over" 30-50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States.
Economic Figures Paint Grim Picture
The stakes are enormous for Venezuela's population:
- 78% of government budget allocated to social spending
- Current oil output: approximately 1 million barrels per day (down from 3.5 million in the 1990s)
- Nearly 80% of the budget remains vulnerable to revenue disruption
Expert Warnings
Tim Hunter of Oxford Economics warned that squeezed finances could trigger "very quick knock-on consequences in terms of social spending, which in turn comes with a risk of social unrest."
Cynthia Arnson of Johns Hopkins University cautioned: "Oil companies make very costly investments. The idea that Maduro's capture will cause US oil companies to jump into Venezuela is also a myth."
Benjamin Radd of UCLA added that infrastructure requires massive investment and recovery is "years away" before Venezuela sees economic improvement.
Political Uncertainty
Unlike Iraq's post-2003 de-Baathification, Maduro's ouster leaves Venezuela's government structure largely intact. However, the interim government's legitimacy remains unclear, creating uncertainty about economic decision-making authority.
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