The strengthening 2026 El Niño has a 69% chance of becoming more powerful than any comparable event in the official record dating to 1950, the US Climate Prediction Center said in an update issued on August 13. The NOAA agency also placed the probability of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27 above 90%, sharply focusing attention on weather risks across several continents.
The new assessment rests on increasingly clear signals across the tropical Pacific. NOAA said July sea-surface temperature anomalies reached 1.4 degrees Celsius in the Niño-3.4 region, 1.7 degrees in Niño-3 and 2.9 degrees in Niño-1+2, while parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeded 2 degrees. Below the surface, temperature departures reached 10 degrees at depth, and changes in winds, rainfall and atmospheric pressure showed that the ocean and atmosphere were acting together as a strengthening El Niño system.
NOAA's record scenario refers specifically to a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index, or RONI, of at least 2.5 degrees Celsius from October through December. The agency said its official outlook combines multiple models from North America and other regions. The World Meteorological Organization describes El Niño as the warm phase of a natural Pacific cycle that usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months; it does not use the popular term super El Niño as an operational category.
The pattern can reorganize rainfall and temperature far beyond the Pacific. WMO says El Niño is typically linked to wetter conditions in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, while Central America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia often face drier weather. Associated Press reporting also notes that El Niño tends to suppress, but not eliminate, Atlantic hurricane activity while favoring more storms in the central and eastern Pacific.
The forecast does not mean those outcomes will occur everywhere or with equal severity. NOAA stressed that a stronger event raises the odds of characteristic El Niño impacts but never guarantees them. WMO says there is no established evidence that human-caused climate change makes El Niño itself more frequent or intense, although a warmer ocean and atmosphere can amplify associated heatwaves and heavy rainfall by supplying more energy and moisture.
The elevated probabilities give governments, farmers, health agencies, water managers and humanitarian organizations time to prepare for possible floods, drought, heat and crop disruption. WMO has urged authorities to use seasonal forecasts and early warnings to protect lives and livelihoods, while NOAA continues weekly monitoring of oceanic and atmospheric conditions. The Climate Prediction Center's next full diagnostic discussion is scheduled for September 10, when new observations will test whether the event remains on its record-threatening course.
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